Baseball After the All Star Break

Some years ago, I did a predictive study on how Major League Baseball teams would rank at the end of the season, based on their records at the All Star Break and the Pythagorean projection of future wins, based on the runs scored and allowed by each team.

It didn't work all that well. In particular, I predicted that Boston would win the AL East pennant, and Washington would be the NL Wild Card. That sorta didn't happen.

Nevertheless, I'll try again. Here's the table, based on the MLB standings at the All Star Break. The method is the same as last time, so you can read all about it there.

American League
East	W	L	PCT	Place	GB	RS	RA	Pyth	GL	PW	PL	TW	TL	PCT	GB
New York Yankees	53	35	0.602	2	1	455	334	0.637	74	47.14	26.86	100.14	61.86	0.618	0.00
Boston	55	35	0.611	1	0	482	371	0.617	72	44.42	27.58	99.42	62.58	0.614	0.73
Tampa Bay	49	41	0.544	3	6	380	343	0.546	72	39.35	32.65	88.35	73.65	0.545	11.80
Toronto	45	47	0.489	4	11	426	416	0.511	70	35.76	34.24	80.76	81.24	0.498	19.39
Baltimore	36	52	0.409	5	18	355	454	0.390	74	28.85	45.15	64.85	97.15	0.400	35.29
Central	W	L	PCT	Place	GB	RS	RA	Pyth	GL	PW	PL	TW	TL	PCT	GB
Cleveland	47	42	0.528	2	0.5	386	382	0.505	73	36.85	36.15	83.85	78.15	0.518	0.00
Detroit	49	43	0.533	1	0	413	421	0.491	70	34.39	35.61	83.39	78.61	0.515	0.46
Chicago White Sox	44	48	0.478	3	5	366	383	0.479	70	33.55	36.45	77.55	84.45	0.479	6.29
Minnesota	41	48	0.461	4	6.5	347	414	0.420	73	30.69	42.31	71.69	90.31	0.443	12.16
Kansas City	37	54	0.407	5	11.5	402	449	0.450	71	31.94	39.06	68.94	93.06	0.426	14.91
West	W	L	PCT	Place	GB	RS	RA	Pyth	GL	PW	PL	TW	TL	PCT	GB
Texas	51	41	0.554	1	0	457	404	0.556	70	38.91	31.09	89.91	72.09	0.555	0.00
Los Angeles Angels	50	42	0.543	2	1	355	330	0.533	70	37.32	32.68	87.32	74.68	0.539	2.59
Seattle	43	48	0.473	3	7.5	301	319	0.474	71	33.63	37.37	76.63	85.37	0.473	13.28
Oakland	39	53	0.424	4	12	315	339	0.467	70	32.66	37.34	71.66	90.34	0.442	18.24
National League
East	W	L	PCT	Place	GB	RS	RA	Pyth	GL	PW	PL	TW	TL	PCT	GB
Philadelphia	57	34	0.626	1	0	384	295	0.618	71	43.86	27.14	100.86	61.14	0.623	0.00
Atlanta	54	38	0.587	2	3.5	365	312	0.571	70	39.96	30.04	93.96	68.04	0.580	6.89
New York Mets	46	45	0.505	3	11	399	388	0.513	71	36.40	34.60	82.40	79.60	0.509	18.46
Washington	46	46	0.500	4	11.5	352	354	0.497	70	34.82	35.18	80.82	81.18	0.499	20.04
Florida	43	48	0.473	5	14	352	396	0.447	71	31.71	39.29	74.71	87.29	0.461	26.15
Central	W	L	PCT	Place	GB	RS	RA	Pyth	GL	PW	PL	TW	TL	PCT	GB
St. Louis	49	43	0.533	2	0	433	407	0.528	70	36.97	33.03	85.97	76.03	0.531	0.00
Milwaukee	49	43	0.533	1	0	405	406	0.499	70	34.92	35.08	83.92	78.08	0.518	2.05
Pittsburgh	47	43	0.522	3	1	354	346	0.510	72	36.75	35.25	83.75	78.25	0.517	2.22
Cincinnati	45	47	0.489	4	4	437	408	0.531	70	37.18	32.82	82.18	79.82	0.507	3.79
Chicago Cubs	37	55	0.402	5	12	375	459	0.409	70	28.63	41.37	65.63	96.37	0.405	20.34
Houston	30	62	0.326	6	19	358	464	0.384	70	26.89	43.11	56.89	105.11	0.351	29.08
West	W	L	PCT	Place	GB	RS	RA	Pyth	GL	PW	PL	TW	TL	PCT	GB
San Francisco	52	40	0.565	1	0	332	322	0.514	70	35.97	34.03	87.97	74.03	0.543	0.00
Arizona	49	43	0.533	2	3	416	407	0.510	70	35.70	34.30	84.70	77.30	0.523	3.28
Colorado	43	48	0.473	3	8.5	395	407	0.486	71	34.53	36.47	77.53	84.47	0.479	10.44
Los Angeles Dodgers	41	51	0.446	4	11	340	373	0.458	70	32.06	37.94	73.06	88.94	0.451	14.92
San Diego	40	52	0.435	5	12	304	338	0.452	70	31.63	38.37	71.63	90.37	0.442	16.34

Abbreviations:

• W: Current team wins
• L: Current team loses
• PCT: Winning rate
• Place: Current place in standings
• GB: Games Behind
• RS: Total Runs scored by team
• RA: Total Runs allowed by team
• Pyth: Pythagorean expected win rate. Following MLB, I used an exponent of 1.82 rather than the original James value of 2. It doesn't make a lot of difference, and didn't change the order.
• GL: Games left in season for the team
• PW: Projected wins in remainder of season, assuming they win at the Pythagorean rate
• PL: Projected Pythagorean loses
• TW: Total wins, current + projected Pythagorean
• TL: Total loses
• PCT: Projected final winning ratio
• GB: Projected final games behind

OK, not a lot of changes going on. Despite an anemic offense, San Francisco's fantastic pitching will keep them in first in the NL West. Philadelphia will win the NL East going away, even though Atlanta wins the NL Wild Card. Texas will hang on in the AL West.

There are a few predicted swaps, highlighted in yellow: St. Louis will pull ahead of Milwaukee. And Cleveland will (yawn) edge out Detroit. Surprisingly, the only changes occur at the top, which probably says something about competitive balance in MLB.

And, finally, Red Sox will be the AL Wild Card. Which means …

Frak