Monday, July 11, 2011

Baseball After the All Star Break

Some years ago, I did a predictive study on how Major League Baseball teams would rank at the end of the season, based on their records at the All Star Break and the Pythagorean projection of future wins, based on the runs scored and allowed by each team.

It didn't work all that well. In particular, I predicted that Boston would win the AL East pennant, and Washington would be the NL Wild Card. That sorta didn't happen.

Nevertheless, I'll try again. Here's the table, based on the MLB standings at the All Star Break. The method is the same as last time, so you can read all about it there.

American League
East  W   L  PCT Place GB  RS   RA  Pyth GL PW PL TW TL PCT GB
New York Yankees 53 35 0.602 2 1 455 334 0.637 74 47.14 26.86 100.14 61.86 0.618 0.00
Boston 55 35 0.611 1 0 482 371 0.617 72 44.42 27.58 99.42 62.58 0.614 0.73
Tampa Bay 49 41 0.544 3 6 380 343 0.546 72 39.35 32.65 88.35 73.65 0.545 11.80
Toronto 45 47 0.489 4 11 426 416 0.511 70 35.76 34.24 80.76 81.24 0.498 19.39
Baltimore 36 52 0.409 5 18 355 454 0.390 74 28.85 45.15 64.85 97.15 0.400 35.29
Central  W   L  PCT Place GB  RS   RA  Pyth GL PW PL TW TL PCT GB
Cleveland 47 42 0.528 2 0.5 386 382 0.505 73 36.85 36.15 83.85 78.15 0.518 0.00
Detroit 49 43 0.533 1 0 413 421 0.491 70 34.39 35.61 83.39 78.61 0.515 0.46
Chicago White Sox 44 48 0.478 3 5 366 383 0.479 70 33.55 36.45 77.55 84.45 0.479 6.29
Minnesota 41 48 0.461 4 6.5 347 414 0.420 73 30.69 42.31 71.69 90.31 0.443 12.16
Kansas City 37 54 0.407 5 11.5 402 449 0.450 71 31.94 39.06 68.94 93.06 0.426 14.91
West  W   L  PCT Place GB  RS   RA  Pyth GL PW PL TW TL PCT GB
Texas 51 41 0.554 1 0 457 404 0.556 70 38.91 31.09 89.91 72.09 0.555 0.00
Los Angeles Angels 50 42 0.543 2 1 355 330 0.533 70 37.32 32.68 87.32 74.68 0.539 2.59
Seattle 43 48 0.473 3 7.5 301 319 0.474 71 33.63 37.37 76.63 85.37 0.473 13.28
Oakland 39 53 0.424 4 12 315 339 0.467 70 32.66 37.34 71.66 90.34 0.442 18.24
National League
East  W   L  PCT Place GB  RS   RA  Pyth GL PW PL TW TL PCT GB
Philadelphia 57 34 0.626 1 0 384 295 0.618 71 43.86 27.14 100.86 61.14 0.623 0.00
Atlanta 54 38 0.587 2 3.5 365 312 0.571 70 39.96 30.04 93.96 68.04 0.580 6.89
New York Mets 46 45 0.505 3 11 399 388 0.513 71 36.40 34.60 82.40 79.60 0.509 18.46
Washington 46 46 0.500 4 11.5 352 354 0.497 70 34.82 35.18 80.82 81.18 0.499 20.04
Florida 43 48 0.473 5 14 352 396 0.447 71 31.71 39.29 74.71 87.29 0.461 26.15
Central  W   L  PCT Place GB  RS   RA  Pyth GL PW PL TW TL PCT GB
St. Louis 49 43 0.533 2 0 433 407 0.528 70 36.97 33.03 85.97 76.03 0.531 0.00
Milwaukee 49 43 0.533 1 0 405 406 0.499 70 34.92 35.08 83.92 78.08 0.518 2.05
Pittsburgh 47 43 0.522 3 1 354 346 0.510 72 36.75 35.25 83.75 78.25 0.517 2.22
Cincinnati 45 47 0.489 4 4 437 408 0.531 70 37.18 32.82 82.18 79.82 0.507 3.79
Chicago Cubs 37 55 0.402 5 12 375 459 0.409 70 28.63 41.37 65.63 96.37 0.405 20.34
Houston 30 62 0.326 6 19 358 464 0.384 70 26.89 43.11 56.89 105.11 0.351 29.08
West  W   L  PCT Place GB  RS   RA  Pyth GL PW PL TW TL PCT GB
San Francisco 52 40 0.565 1 0 332 322 0.514 70 35.97 34.03 87.97 74.03 0.543 0.00
Arizona 49 43 0.533 2 3 416 407 0.510 70 35.70 34.30 84.70 77.30 0.523 3.28
Colorado 43 48 0.473 3 8.5 395 407 0.486 71 34.53 36.47 77.53 84.47 0.479 10.44
Los Angeles Dodgers 41 51 0.446 4 11 340 373 0.458 70 32.06 37.94 73.06 88.94 0.451 14.92
San Diego 40 52 0.435 5 12 304 338 0.452 70 31.63 38.37 71.63 90.37 0.442 16.34

Abbreviations:

  • W: Current team wins
  • L: Current team loses
  • PCT: Winning rate
  • Place: Current place in standings
  • GB: Games Behind
  • RS: Total Runs scored by team
  • RA: Total Runs allowed by team
  • Pyth: Pythagorean expected win rate. Following MLB, I used an exponent of 1.82 rather than the original James value of 2. It doesn't make a lot of difference, and didn't change the order.
  • GL: Games left in season for the team
  • PW: Projected wins in remainder of season, assuming they win at the Pythagorean rate
  • PL: Projected Pythagorean loses
  • TW: Total wins, current + projected Pythagorean
  • TL: Total loses
  • PCT: Projected final winning ratio
  • GB: Projected final games behind

OK, not a lot of changes going on. Despite an anemic offense, San Francisco's fantastic pitching will keep them in first in the NL West. Philadelphia will win the NL East going away, even though Atlanta wins the NL Wild Card. Texas will hang on in the AL West.

There are a few predicted swaps, highlighted in yellow: St. Louis will pull ahead of Milwaukee. And Cleveland will (yawn) edge out Detroit. Surprisingly, the only changes occur at the top, which probably says something about competitive balance in MLB.

And, finally, Red Sox will be the AL Wild Card. Which means …

Frak

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